What Are (Semi)Presidential Elections About? A Case Study of the Portuguese 2006 Elections

Abstract

This article examines what has driven voters’ choices in the 2006 presidential election in Portugal. Electing a semipresidential head of state has often been treated either as a “popularity contest” or as a full‐fledged “first‐order” election, depending on the particular national political system in which those elections were studied. Using data from a panel survey conducted following the 2005 legislative and 2006 presidential elections, this article suggests that, in a “premier‐presidentialist” system such as Portugal – where presidents are neither the heads of the executive nor mere figureheads – voters are unlikely to be oblivious to the conventional partisan and ideological cues provided by campaigns, but also unlikely to see these elections as a mechanism with which to hold government accountable. Instead, patterns of defection from the government party seem to conform to theoretical expectations derived from the notion that presidential elections in such cases can be conceived as “less important”, but where parties and voters remain aware of the connections between what is at stake in different electoral arenas.