What are causes of cash flow bullwhip effect in centralized and decentralized supply chains?

Abstract

Bullwhip effect in supply chain is a phenomenon which can emerge in both inventory levels and replenishment orders. Bullwhip effect causes variations in cash conversion cycle (CCC) across cash flow of supply chain. As a result, it can lead to inefficiencies such as cash flow bullwhip (CFB). Due to negative impact of CFB on cash flow of supply chain, it can lead to a decrease in efficiency of supply chain management (SCM). That is why supply chain modeling is a proper start point for effective management and control of the CFB. This paper aims to analyze concurrent impact of causes of inventory bullwhip effect and effect of their interactions on CFB based on generalized OUT policy from aspect of CCC variance. To this end, first we develop system dynamics structure of beer distribution game as simulation model which includes multi-stage supply chain under both centralized and decentralized supply chains. Then, in order to develop CFB function, we design experiments in developed simulation model using response surface methodology (RSM). Results demonstrate that if each chain member uses generalized OUT policy as replenishment model, there still exists CFB in both chains and CFB largely stems from rationing and shortage gaming in both centralized and decentralized supply chain. In addition, when information on ordering parameters are not shared among members, parameters of downstream stage (i.e. retailer) are more important than parameters of upstream stage (i.e. manufacturer) in reducing CFB function.