Western Europe’s extreme July 2019 heatwave in a warmer world

Abstract

Summertime heatwaves are extreme events with a large societal impact. Intensity, duration and spatial extent, all heatwave properties are projected to increase in a warming world, implying that summers that qualified as extreme in the past will become increasingly normal. In this paper we quantify how the changes play out for the July 2019 European heatwave that shattered temperature records throughout Western Europe. We combine a storyline approach with ensemble Pseudo Global Warming (PGW) and high-resolution dynamical downscaling. The downscaling is done with a regional climate model (RACMO2, 12 km resolution) and a convection-permitting model (HCLIM-AROME, 2.5 km resolution). Under PGW the maximum temperature during the heatwave rises 1.5 to 2.5 times faster than the global mean, implying that even at moderate warming levels the heatwave impact changes are tangible. Moreover, there is no sign that the increase in the maximum temperature levels off at higher warming levels, implying that at +4K above present-day temperatures could reach 50 ∘C. During heatwaves cities become islands of heat where daily maxima and night-time minima are up to 5 ∘C higher than in rural areas as we show in ultra-high resolution HCLIM-AROME simulations at 150 m resolution.