Western Civilization and the Birth-Rate

Abstract

A century ago Robert Malthus showed that spontaneous fecundity of man is such that, with a purely natural mortality, population doubles in twenty-five years, whereas subsistence obtainable from a given area cannot be indefinitely increased. He showed furthermore that, since reproductive instincts are in no wise correlated with man's power to increase food-supply, population tends to increase even when additional numbers can no longer be supported. Under such circumstances equilibration of population with resources is brought about by war, misery, plague, famine, and vice, which raise death-rate until it equals natural birthrate. Although this cruel mode of equilibration has prevailed through human history, a milder mode is possible if, by taking thought, men will restrict reproduction until births no longer exceed deaths. This, however, presupposes more foresight and self-control than can be looked for in average man, so Malthus saw no prospect of abolition of poverty, cherished little hope for laboring masses, and painted future of society with a somberness that gave economics its nickname of the dismal science. It is nothing to discredit of Malthus's doctrines that he did not foresee certain social transformationsdemocracy, emancipation of women, replacement of custom imitation by fashion imitation-which have generalized his preventive check until birth-rate