Western Balkans' European Perspective and EU's Absorption Capacity

Abstract

The paper examines relationship between the EU’ s absorption capacity and the time and size of of future enlargements. First we discuss the EU’ s absorption capacity. Next, three scenarios of future enlargements are considered. The first is scenario for fast inclusion of Croatia into the EU, under extension of the Nice Treaty voting or application of the Constitutional Treaty rules. The second scenario deals with accession of Western Balkans countries into the EU. The third scenario deals with inclusion of Turkey and Western Balkans countries in the EU. For each scenario allocation of votes in the Council is considered. Implications of identified solutions on the decision making efficiency and on the distribution of power among present and perspective EU members is examined. The analysis shows that main institutional arrangements are likely to depend on size and time of the next enlargement(s). Absorption capacity heavily depends on institutional design. Consequently, the institutional setting should be developed in parallel with candidates’ capacity to take on the obligations of membership, and adapted according to the size of new entrants.