Abstract
Abstract A lumber and plywood capacity simulation model is derived from U.S. Forest Service data. Western and southern lumber and plywood capacity changes are responsive to gross profit margins specific to the individual product and region. Southern lumber production is forecast to increase in both absolute and relative terms through the 1980s while western production falls to some 20 percent of total U.S. demand (from 23 percent in 1976). Western plywood production capacity is forecast to continue its decline through the 1980s while southern capacity increases. Southern stumpage prices could double from 1978 levels in constant dollar terms, and the demand for saw-timber-sized stumpage in the South may be one-third to two-thirds higher by 1990.
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