Abstract

Social unrest is a feature of the early 21st century, yet relatively little research binds theoretical aspects with empirical validation of the drivers of protests and revolutions. This study aims to empirically validate the Davies J-Curve considering the digital era, with economic, social, and political factors. Using big data techniques, network analysis, and theoretical analysis, we analyzed countries' similarities by analyzing Human Development Index (HDI) and Worldwide Governance Indicator (WGI) as proxies of social well-being. Results established the existence of a J-Curve during social crises in countries prior to an occurrence of large-scale social unrest. In addition, our results suggest that HDI was not a sufficient indicator regarding countries' experienced well-being, likely because it is missing the highly granular aspects of daily life. We further recommended that other indicators from political and psychological areas should be considered and treated in the data preparation phase for future society-wide well-being research for a more realistic baseline.

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