Welfare and Population: Notes on Rural India since 1960

Abstract

The many difficulties involved in finding out how living levels have changed among Indias poor are detailed. 3 questions are tackled: 1) has the distribution of income improved or worsened in recent years 2) has the proportion of the population below some given poverty line increased or decreased and 3) have the actual incomes of the poorest levels of the population risen or fallen in absolute terms. The deficie ncies of various estimates based on various data sources are estimated and the problems involved in calculating figures examined in detail. In general it is concluded that monetary incomes have risen during the decade 1960-1970 but due to inflation and the ever-increasing population of the lowest levels real income has fallen. Net availability of food grains (in grams per person) rose from 430.9 in 1956 to 455.0 in 1970 then dropped to 448.4 in 1974. These figures include imports and exports and may not equal net consumption. Unemployment figures are even harder to calculate but Sens examination of the rural workers data in the 25th round of the National Sample Survey (NSS) plus employment exchange figures found a minimum of 19.9-21.3 million actively seeking work. It is hard to believe that those without gainful employment are much less than 10 percent of the population but this is only a guess. Educational figures underscore the perpetual economic disadvantage of the poor rural dweller. Although 90 percent of boys and 60 percent of girls enroll in primary education about 60 percent of the total may leave school without attaining functional literacy. Mortality declined for a number of years but now has plateaued. Further advanced depend upon improved nutrition then improved public health measures. The solution is seen only in rural development. Family planning alone will not reduce the number being born. The poor still do not see children as economic liabilities but rather as additional income. If the incomes of poor are raised hopes will be raised. Then the process of modernization which leads to desire for smaller families can take hold. Otherwise it is unrealistic to expect rapid fertility decline in India.