Weird winter weather in the Anthropocene: How volatile temperatures shape violent crime

Abstract

PurposeCurrent evidence suggests volatile temperatures are becoming more common because of climate change and can be expected to become even more frequent in the future. By focusing on recent temperature variability, we attempt to estimate one important dimension of climate change's impact on violent crime by exploring associations between sudden temperature swings and the incidence of violence. We also explore whether sudden upward temperature anomalies have stronger positive impacts on violent crime in the coldest months of the year due to routine activities changes. MethodsThis study explores the association between sudden temperature anomalies (both upward and downward) and the daily incidence of homicide, robbery, and aggravated assault in 28 U.S. cities from 2015 to 2021 using multivariable two-way fixed-effects negative binomial panel regression models. ResultsWe find temperature volatility is significantly associated with the incidence of violence. Upward departures in temperature are associated with increases in robbery and homicide, while downward departures are associated in the opposite direction. These associations are more robust in winter, with unexpectedly warmer winter weather associated with larger increases in robbery. ConclusionsResults support the hypotheses and routine activities theory. We discuss the findings in the context of under-explored criminological consequences of climate change.