Weight Loss Treatment and Longitudinal Weight Change Among Primary Care Patients With Obesity

Abstract

Among individuals with obesity, 5% or greater weight loss can improve health. Weight management treatments (WMT) include nutrition counseling, very low-calorie meal replacement (MR), antiobesity medications (AOM), and bariatric surgery; however, little is known about how these WMT are associated with weight change among individual patients and populations. To characterize weight status and WMT use among primary care patients and assess associations between WMT and weight trajectories. Retrospective, population-based cohort study of primary care patients from 1 academic health system in Michigan between October 2015 and March 2020 using cross-sectional analysis to compare obesity prevalence and WMT utilization. For patients with obesity and WMT exposure or matched controls, a multistate Markov model assessing associations between WMT and longitudinal weight status trajectories was used. Data were analyzed from October 2021 to October 2023. Cross-sectional exposure was year: 2017 or 2019. Trajectory analysis exposures were WMT: nutrition counseling, MR, AOM, and bariatric surgery. Cross-sectional analysis compared mean body mass index (BMI), obesity prevalence, and, among patients with obesity, prospective WMT use. The trajectory analysis examined longitudinal weight status using thresholds of ±5% and 10% of baseline weight with primary outcomes being the 1-year probabilities of 5% or greater weight loss for each WMT. Adult patients (146 959 participants) consisted of 83 636 female participants (56.9%); 8940 (6.1%) were Asian, 14 560 (9.9%) were Black, and 116 664 (79.4%) were White. Patients had a mean (SD) age of 49.6 (17.7) years and mean (SD) BMI of 29.2 (7.2). Among 138 682 patients, prevalence of obesity increased from 39.2% in 2017 to 40.7% in 2019; WMT use among patients with obesity increased from 5.3% to 7.1% (difference: 1.7%; 95% CI, 1.3%-2.2%). In a multistate model (10 180 patients; 33 549 patient-years), the 1-year probability of 5% or greater weight loss without WMT exposure was 15.6% (95% CI, 14.3%-16.5%) at reference covariates. In contrast, the probability of 5% or greater weight loss was more likely with year-long exposures to any WMT (nutrition counseling: 23.1%; 95% CI, 21.3%-25.1%; MR: 54.6%; 95% CI, 46.5%-61.2%; AOM: 27.8%; 95% CI, 25.0%-30.5%; bariatric surgery: 93.0%; 95% CI, 89.7%-95.0%). In this cohort study of primary-care patients with obesity, all WMT increased the patient-level probability of achieving 5% or greater weight loss, but current rates of utilization are low and insufficient to reduce weight at the population level.