Weighing the fog of war: Illustrating the power of Bayesian methods for historical analysis through the Battle of the Dogger Bank

Abstract

ABSTRACTThe application of scientific methods to historical situations is restricted by the existence of a single outcome with no possibility of repetition. However, new computational methods make quantitative historical analysis possible. The authors apply methods of approximate Bayesian computation to simulate a naval engagement of the First World War, the Battle of the Dogger Bank. They demonstrate that the battle's outcome was highly unlikely, with significant implications both for subsequent actions and for historical understanding. Dogger Bank exemplifies the view that Bayesian methods offer historians the tool they need to grapple with the evolving probabilities of historical events, giving a sound scientific basis for counterfactual history and opening up a wealth of possibilities for analysis.