Weibull multi-state models with misclassification

Abstract

ABSTRACTIt is often important to allow multi-state models (MSMs) to accommodate misclassification of states. We introduce Bayesian parametric MSMs with unknown misclassification of states and Weibull distributed waiting times between states. This allows transitions between states to depend on the time spent in the current state, a feature lacking in commonly used exponential waiting times model. To fit the proposed model, a MCMC algorithm was employed. An example on the progression of bipolar disorder is presented along with simulation results. There was evidence that Weibull waiting times are an improvement over exponential in the study of bipolar disorder.