Weathering electricity demand? Seasonal variation in electricity consumption among off-grid households in rural India

Abstract

We investigate the relationship between energy consumption from standalone PV systems and a factor widely understood as critical to general energy use: weather. Using household level data collected between January 2016 and January 2017 from seven habitations in Uttar Pradesh, India, we employ linear regression models with quadratic time polynomials to estimate the influence of several key weather variables on electricity consumption. The results highlight the substantive influence of seasonal variation on energy demand. With each single degree increase in temperature, electricity consumption increased 5.2-Wh per week on average when controlling for seasonal change. This strong, positive relationship between electricity consumption and temperature indicates that weather is an important consideration for electrification efforts. As current projections indicate average temperatures will continue to rise, off grid system design strategies should consider the potential for electricity consumption to rise as well.