Abstract
Early warning systems to predict infectious disease outbreaks have been identified as a key adaptive response to climate change. Warming, climate variability and extreme weather events associated with climate change are expected to drive an increase in frequency and intensity of mosquito-borne disease (MBD) outbreaks globally. In Canada, this will mean an increased risk of endemic and emerging MBD outbreaks such as West Nile virus and other MBDs. The availability of timely information on the risk of impending MBD outbreaks has important public health implications, by allowing implementation of mosquito control measures and targeted communications regarding the need for increased personal protective measures-before an outbreak occurs. In Canada, both mechanistic and statistical weather-based models have been developed to predict West Nile virus outbreaks. These include models for different species of mosquitoes that transmit West Nile virus in different geographical areas of Canada. Although initial results have been promising, further validation and assessment of forecasting skill are needed before wide scale implementation. Weather-based forecasting for other emerging MBDs in Canada, such as Eastern equine encephalitis, may also be feasible.
Highlights
The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has identified the development of early warning systems as a key adaptation strategy to deal with the health risks of climate change [1]
There is some evidence that may these mosquito-borne disease (MBD) be more common in humans in Canada than previously thought [5,6] but they may increase with climate change [7]
Several weather-based forecasting models have been developed in Canada for West Nile virus (WNV), outbreaks of which are anticipated to become more frequent with climate change
Summary
The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has identified the development of early warning systems as a key adaptation strategy to deal with the health risks of climate change [1]. By understanding how weather affects mosquito lifecycles and virus transmission, it is theoretically possible to predict MBD outbreaks and enable a public health response to begin before an outbreak occurs [3,13] The objective of this overview is to describe the concepts, methods and status of weather-based forecasting for WNV in Canada, and identify the steps needed to implement forecasting as a public health tool. One model was developed in Saskatchewan to forecast both the numbers of Cx. tarsalis mosquitoes and the proportion infected in the Prairies, using temperature and precipitation data as predictors [23] This model was loosely validated against the numbers of human cases in two months of one year, and predicted a spatial pattern of risk for these two months that was consistent with the observed pattern of incidence of human cases. The extent to which missed outbreaks and false alarms are tolerable is a decision of public health professionals and policy makers, who would decide on a model’s public health utility
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