Abstract
Weather models are essential tools for checking of the effect of the weather elements in terms of their effect on the production of the crop. This research is an attempt to see the effect of only two variables i.e., temperature and rainfall for the division Faisalabad (semitropical region of Pakistan). The model fitted is of the linear form:Y=a+bX 1+cX 2, the values ofa,b,c have been found. The expected yield has been calculated by using the aridity indicesX 1 andX 2 and the result in the form of coefficient of determinationR 2 has been found equal to 0.166. The significance of the regression coefficient has been tested, which shows that the contribution to the yield from aridity index at germination and that at ripening is significant. The wheat yields are the results of a wide variety of variables, most of which show varying degree of relationship with one another, some positive and some negative in terms of output. These variables may be technology, fertilizers, pesticides, epidemics, kinds of seeds used, market price of crop and the area under cultivation etc, which can be the source of variation in the wheat yield. Since rainfall during germination and temperature at the ripening periods are the necessary factors for the yield of wheat, for this purpose these parameters have been studied in order to their contribution.
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