Weather, Voter Turnout and Partisan Effects in Korea, 1995–1999

Abstract

Weather conditions have long been considered as a major factor that affects voter turnout. Does inclement weather suppress voter turnout? If so, which party would benefit from lower voter turnout caused by bad weather conditions? Since voter turnout has an impact on electoral outcomes in many countries, including Korea, addressing these questions is essential for better understanding of voter turnout and electoral outcomes. This paper examines the weather-turnout theory using 146 by-elections held in Korea between 1995 and 1999. The results show that, all else being constant, inclement weather reduces voter turnout, implying that it may benefit right-wing or major parties rather than left-wing or minor parties through its negative impact on voter turnout.