Abstract
This paper assesses relationships between Scottish ice climbing and daily weather conditions between 1961 and 1990. Synoptic air flow and instrumental climate data from Braemar and Fort Augustus were analysed in relation to first ascents of ice climbs in the Cairngorms, and on Ben Nevis and Creag Meagaidh. Lagged weather variables were calculated and stepwise logistic regression was used to estimate optimum models for both areas. Significant variables are anticyclonicity, low minimum air temperature and northerly or easterly airflow (Cairngorms, P = 0.0006); and northerly or easterly airflow, low minimum air temperature and low precipitation (Ben Nevis and Creag Meagaidh, P < 0.0001). A five‐day cold spell is optimum for Ben Nevis and Creag Meagaidh. A week with relatively little precipitation is beneficial in both areas. Air flow direction is more influential than vorticity, the optimum predictors of ice conditions using synoptic data alone are a persistent easterly component (beneficial), and a persistent southerly and westerly component (detrimental), P < 0.0001.
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