Abstract
Rodent outbreaks have plagued European agriculture for centuries, but continue to elude comprehensive explanation. Modelling and empirical work in some cyclic rodent systems suggests that changes in reproductive parameters are partly responsible for observed population dynamics. Using a 17-year time series of Microtus arvalis population abundance and demographic data, we explored the relationship between meteorological conditions (temperature and rainfall), female reproductive activity, and population growth rates in a non-cyclic population of this grassland vole species. We found strong but complex relationships between female reproduction and climate variables, with spring female reproduction depressed after cold winters. Population growth rates were, however, uncorrelated with either weather conditions (current and up to three months prior) or with female reproduction (number of foetuses per female and/or proportion of females reproductively active in the population). These results, coupled with age-structure data, suggest that mortality, via predation, disease, or a combination of the two, are responsible for the large multi-annual but non-cyclic population dynamics observed in this population of the common vole.
Highlights
Rodent outbreaks have plagued European agriculture for centuries, but continue to elude comprehensive explanation
Common vole population dynamics appear to be strongly correlated with landscape configuration; in comparing time series of vole populations in various regions of France, Delattre et al.[17] reported a variety of patterns, ranging from low-density populations prone to local extinction in homogeneous intensively farmed agricultural landscapes, to multi-annual large-amplitude fluctuations in pastoral landscapes consisting of permanent grassland
We explored the relationship between meteorological conditions, female reproductive activity, population growth rates and potential cyclicity in a population of this grassland vole species
Summary
Rodent outbreaks have plagued European agriculture for centuries, but continue to elude comprehensive explanation. Population growth rates were, uncorrelated with either weather conditions (current and up to three months prior) or with female reproduction (number of foetuses per female and/or proportion of females reproductively active in the population) These results, coupled with age-structure data, suggest that mortality, via predation, disease, or a combination of the two, are responsible for the large multi-annual but non-cyclic population dynamics observed in this population of the common vole. Multiannual fluctuations in temperate small mammal populations have eluded consistent explanation for more than 100 years, and continue to do so[1] These fluctuations are of interest because many of the species that exhibit them have a large influence on the community dynamics of their respective ecosystems: some are perceived as pests for crops, grasslands, and tree seedlings, and are targeted for control, but are considered keystone species in their native range[2]. In France, agricultural changes in western wetlands have resulted in almost 50% of the pastures being converted to drained agricultural production, with a subsequent decrease in the frequency and intensity of vole population peaks[22]
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