Weather deviations linked to undocumented migration and return between Mexico and the United States

Abstract

As the world's climate continues to change, human populations are exposed to increasingly severe and extreme weather conditions that can promote migration. Here, we examine how extreme weather influences the likelihood of undocumented migration and return between Mexico and the United States. We used data from 48,313 individuals observed between 1992 and 2018 in 84 Mexican agricultural communities. While controlling for regional and temporal confounding factors, we related individual decisions to migrate to the United States without documents and subsequently return to Mexico with lagged weather deviations from the historical norm during the corn-growing season (May to August). Undocumented migration was most likely from areas experiencing extreme drought, and migrants were less likely to return to their communities of origin when extreme weather persisted. These findings establish the role of weather shocks in undocumented Mexican migration to, and eventual settlement in, the United States. The findings also suggest that extreme weather conditions, which are likely to increase with climate change, promote clandestine mobility across borders and, thus, expose migrants to risks associated with crossing dangerous terrain and relying upon smugglers.