Weather and Climate and the Power Sector: Needs, Recent Developments and Challenges

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Weather and climate information is essential to the energy sector. The power sector in particular has been using both observations and forecasts of many meteorological and hydrological parameters for several decades. In the last 10 years, a clear upward trend has been observed in the number, complexity, and value of data provided by National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) or produced by the energy sector itself. Much progress has been made, especially in the medium-term and longer time ranges; the development of reliable probabilistic forecasting systems has allowed many improvements in demand and production forecasts, although there is still a lot to do because of the difficulty in integrating probabilistic weather forecasts in management tools. In addition, the rise of renewable energy (RE) production systems, in particular wind and solar energy, has emphasized new needs for more accurate and reliable short-term forecasts, from real-time to a few days ahead. Rapid fluctuations in wind and solar radiation at local scale certainly raise a serious problem for the management of power grids. Significant and swift improvements in local forecasts, at hourly or even sub-hourly time step, become increasingly important and will be among the drivers for the large-scale development of RE systems. In this paper, we present some important results concerning monthly ensemble forecasts of temperature and river streamflows in France. We then point to the principal needs in weather forecasting associated with the development of RE. We also discuss the importance of collaboration and relationships between providers and users of weather, water, and climate information.