Abstract
Wavelet-based empirical orthogonal function (WEOF) analysis was used to analyze the nonstationary spatial, temporal, and frequency regimes of the regional variability in southern African summer (October–March) rainfall. The leading modes of rainfall variability were then used to establish associations with gridded scale-averaged wavelet power of the sea surface temperature (SST) for the Indian and Atlantic Oceans. The WEOF revealed that southern African rainfall is out of phase between areas north and south of 25°S and that areas north of 25°S and northern South Africa experienced decreased rainfall between 1970 and 1997. The decrease in rainfall was modulated by periods of between 2 and 8 years. Using judiciously selected windows of April-May-June SST data for the Atlantic and Indian Oceans as predictors in the artificial neural network-genetic algorithm (ANN-GA), high prediction skill of standardized summer rainfall of southern Africa was achieved. For the validation period 1988–97, Pearson correlation ...
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