Wavelet analysis-based projection pursuit autoregression model and its application in the runoff forecasting of Li Xiangjiang basin

Abstract

ABSTRACTThe wavelet analysis technique was combined in this study with the projection pursuit autoregression (PPAR) model, and a new mid- and long-term runoff forecasting model, the wavelet analysis-based PPAR (PPAR-WA) is proposed, which realizes runoff forecasting from the perspective of the internal mechanism of a sequence. The runoff forecasting of the leading hydropower station in the Li Xianjiang cascade reservoirs in China was carried out to test the performance of the proposed model, and the accuracy and stability of the forecasting results were evaluated and analysed. The results show that the average relative error of the forecasting period can reach 9.6%, and the best relative error is less than 5% in some years. In addition, compared with PPAR, a back-propagation neural network and autoregression moving average model through three evaluation indexes, the results of PPAR-WA have higher accuracy and stronger stability. So, it has a certain value of popularization and application.