Water-level changes and subsidence rates along the Saigon-Dong Nai River Estuary and the East Sea coastline of the Mekong Delta

Abstract

Southeast Asian deltas are highly threatened areas for flooding as a response to the combined effects of natural compaction and subsidence exacerbated by human impacts, e.g. oil, gas and water extraction, retention of sediment discharge due to river damming and sand mining, land use changes, sea-level rise and storm-induced water-level setup. Tide-induced water-level fluctuations on different time- and spatial scales, seasonal variations of freshwater runoff and sea-level setup can amplify the impact of sea-level rise and of storm surges on the coastal environment and its inhabitants. Moreover, increasing populations accompanied by growing societal demands can lead to further pressure on delta areas. For the Vietnamese Mekong Delta (VMD) and the Saigon-Dong Nai River (SGDNR), rates of subsidence of several cm/yr have already been determined, but for the coastal area, which is most vulnerable to sea-level rise and storm surges, a lack of detailed spatial and temporal information of this parameter exists. To assess the influence of tide- and water-level fluctuations, records from 11 stations, from the tectonically stable position Vung Tau north of the SGDNR entry to Ganh Hao in the southern VMD, were analyzed. The results reveal a relative sea-level rise at Vung Tau reaching 2.2 ± 0.3 mm/yr for the period from 1987-2015, while along the VMD those rates show a spatially variation from 5.6 ± 0.3 mm/yr at Ben Trai to 13.5 ± 0.7 mm/yr at My Thanh. Considering Vung Tau as tectonically stable, these numbers indicate subsidence rates of the coastal sections along the VMD ranging from 3.4 ± 0.3 mm/yr to 11.3 ± 0.7 mm/yr. It is likely that the rates of subsidence along the coast of VMD have accelerated since 2005. They are not only up to 4 times higher than the mean sea-level rise but are variable along the whole SGDNR estuary and the VMD East Sea coastline. Additionally, the importance of daily, fortnightly and seasonal water level fluctuations due to tides and atmospheric influence, which are acting on top of the long-term relative sea-level rise, is shown. Especially the identified regional variations make these data valuable for setting regional priorities for protection strategies to mitigate riverine and marine flooding, especially when both coincide.