Water Use Efficiency and Storage Capacity in South Asia by 2050

Abstract

AbstractMore than one billion South Asians are affected by water scarcity. Pressure on water resources is likely to grow as a result of population growth, urban expansion, and climate change. This paper assesses the impacts of these effects on the historical hydrological baseline, with particular focus on irrigation. A geospatial water balance model was developed for this purpose based on geo‐referenced information available in scientific public domain databases. Annual water supply and demand for a baseline period 1950–2000 were calculated and projected to 2050 using (1) outputs from 19 Global Circulation Models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 for a Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5; (2) population projections to 2050; and (3) historical land‐use patterns at the country level. Improvements in water use efficiency and storage capacity were analyzed using the Modified Water Scarcity Index of the baseline and the projected water balance in 2050 at the watershed scale.