Abstract
This work formulates and implements a mathematical optimization program to assist water managers with water allocation and banking decisions to meet demands. Linear programming is used to formulate the constraints and objective function of the problem and tests of the developed program are performed with data from the Castaic Lake Water Agency (CLWA) in Southern California. The problem is formulated as a deterministic programming problem over a five year planning horizon with annual resolution. The program accepts annual water allocations from the State Water Project (SWP) in California. It then determines the least-cost feasible allocation of this water toward meeting annual demands in the five-year planning horizon. Local water sources, including water recycling, and water banking programs with their constraints and costs are considered to determine the optimal water allocation policy within the planning horizon. Although there is not enough information to fully account for the uncertainty in future allocations and demands as part of the decision problem solution for CLWA, uncertainty in the SWP allocation is considered in the tests, and sensitivity analyses is performed with respect to demand increases to derive inferences regarding the behavior of the median minimum-cost solutions and of the risk of failure to meet demand.
Highlights
There is not enough information to fully account for the uncertainty in future allocations and demands as part of the decision problem solution for Castaic Lake Water Agency (CLWA), uncertainty in the State Water Project (SWP) allocation is considered in the tests, and sensitivity analyses is performed with respect to demand increases to derive inferences regarding the behavior of the median minimum-cost solutions and of the risk of failure to meet demand
The goal of the work is to formulate and test the feasibility of solutions of a mathematical programming problem that will be suitable for annual operation and which will assist Castaic Lake Water Agency (CLWA) with decisions pertaining to meeting demand over a multi-year decision horizon
A deterministic mathematical programming problem formulation is implemented at this time, that is flexible enough to allow for each year the examination of several possible scenarios of SWP allocation and demand
Summary
The goal of the work is to formulate and test the feasibility of solutions of a mathematical programming problem that will be suitable for annual operation and which will assist Castaic Lake Water Agency (CLWA) with decisions pertaining to meeting demand over a multi-year decision horizon. The solutions for water to be placed in storage and for water transfers among various storages will be provided for the entire planning horizon, only the present year solution will be implemented as it contains the lowest level of uncertainty. Even this low uncertainty may be considered in the decision process, as CLWA decision makers can examine the spectrum of possible solutions obtained with particular emphasis in any differences for the current year prior to arriving at a decision.
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