Water Security Risk Assessment of the Yellow River Basin Based on Constrained-Random Weight and Cloud Model

Abstract

Present risk assessment methods so far were majorly based on the primary knowledge and were incapable of combining uncertainty into risk assessment outputs. In order to solve this problem, a new methodology for risk assessment using constrained-random weight method and cloud model is introduced here to perform the risk assessment of water security in the Yellow River basin. The effect of knowledge deficiency on risk assessment can be illustrated on the instability of risk series by the constrained-random weight method; the result of assessment can incorporate the randomness and fuzziness of risks and corresponding assessments, and transition of quantified risk series into qualitative risk level can be possible as the presence of the cloud model. Experiment about the water security risk assessment of the Yellow River baisin proved the validity and applicability of this method.