Abstract
Water security is an integral aspect of the socio-economic development in China. Nevertheless, water resources are under persistent pressures because of the growing population, heavy irrigation, climate change effects and short-term policies. Traditional management approaches narrowly focus on increasing supply and reducing demand without considering the complex interactions and feedback loops that govern water resource behaviour. Whereas these approaches may provide quick fix solutions, they often lead to unanticipated, sometimes catastrophic, delayed outcomes. Therefore, water management needs to take a holistic approach that caters to the interdependent physical (e.g. water inflows, outflows) and behavioural (e.g. decision rules, perceptions) processes in the system. Unlike reductionist approaches, System Dynamics (SD) takes a system-level view for modelling and analysing the complex structure (cause–effect relationships, feedback loops, delays) that generates the systemic behaviour. Simulating the SD model allows assessing long-term system-wide impacts, exploring leverage points and communicating results to decision makers. In this paper, we follow an SD modelling approach to examine the future of water security in Yulin City. First, we present a conceptual model for integrating water supply and demand. Based on this, we build an SD model to simulate and analyse the dynamics of water resource over time. The model output is tested to ensure that it satisfactorily replicates the historical behaviour of the system. The model is used to quantitatively assess the effectiveness of various supply/demand management options. Three scenarios are designed and examined: business-as-usual, supply management, and demand management. Results show that current management regime cannot effectively meet the future water demand. Whereas supply acquisition provides short-term benefits, it cannot cope with the growing population. A combination of conservation measures and demand-management instruments is regarded the most effective strategy for balancing supply and demand.
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