Water resources of the South Asian region in a warmer atmosphere

Abstract

The global mean surface temperature may rise by about 0.3° C per decade during the next few decades as a result of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions in the earth's atmosphere. The data generated in the greenhouse warming simulations (Business-as-Usual scenario of IPCC) with the climate models developed at Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg have been used to assess future plausible hydrological scenario for the South Asian region. The model results indicate enhanced surface warming (2.7°C for summer and 3.6°C for winter) over the land reginos of South Asia during the next hundred years. While there is no significant change in the precipitation over most of the land regions during winter, substantial increase in precipitation is likely to occur during summer. As a result, an increase in soil moisture is likely over central India, Bangladesh and South China during summer but a statistically significant decline in soil moisture is expected over central China in winter. A moderate decrease in surface runoff may occur over large areas of central China during winter while the flood prone areas of NE-India, Bangladesh and South China are likely to have an increase in surface runoff during summer by the end of next century.