Abstract
AbstractClimate change impact on water resources has been observed in Ukraine since the end of the 20th century. For now, only large-scale climate impact studies cover Ukraine's territory, having low credibility for a specific catchment. This study aims to calculate future changes in river discharge, water flow components, and soil water within the Desna basin and evaluate vulnerability trends on this basis. The framework assembles the process-based SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) model and eight high-resolution regional climate models (RCMs) driven by RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios. The climate models are provided by the Euro-CORDEX initiative and based on three RCMs (RCA4, HIRHAM5, and RACMO22E) forced by five general circulation models (CNRM-CM5, EC-EARTH, IPSL-CM5A-MR, HadGEM2-ES, and MPI-ESM-LR). The results preferably show a moderate increase in the annual discharge until the end of the 21st century. The intra-annual changes of water balance components negatively affect the vegetation period because of higher dryness and temperature stress but reduce flood risk, diffuse pollution, and water erosion in the far future. In the river basin management plan, the highest attention should be paid to adaptive strategies in agriculture because of possible water deficit in the vegetation season under future climate scenarios.
Highlights
Water resources management must take into account climate change because global warming accelerates (Allen et al 2018)
This study aims to provide a quantitative background for the water resources management within the Desna basin, predict trends of environmental issues, and highlight risks of climate change
We presented the novel projections for the water resources of the Desna river basin that are based on Euro-CORDEX highresolution regional climate models (RCMs) and the process-based SWAT model
Summary
Water resources management must take into account climate change because global warming accelerates (Allen et al 2018). Annual precipitation has not significantly changed, but monthly values have smoothed out, and heavy rain frequency has risen (Grebin 2010; Balabukh et al 2018; Palamarchuk & Shedemenko 2020). Ukraine belongs to the countries with insufficient water supply and uneven distribution of water flow over the territory (Stashuk et al 2014). Water resources of the Dnipro, which is the main waterway of Ukraine, are mostly formed in the north-western part of the country, Belarus, and the Russian Federation by the transboundary rivers Prypiat (30% of the Dnipro discharge), Upper Dnipro (31%), and Desna (27%). The water flow is accumulated by six reservoirs and redistributed by 15 artificial channels to households, heavy industry, and agriculture in water-scarce central and south Ukraine
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