Water Resources of the Black Sea Catchment under Future Climate and Landuse Change Projections

Elham Rouholahnejad Freund,Karim Abbaspour,Anthony Lehmann

doi:10.3390/w9080598

Abstract

As water resources become further stressed due to increasing levels of societal demand, understanding the effect of climate and landuse change on various components of the water cycle is of strategic importance. In this study we used a previously developed hydrologic model of the Black Sea Catchment (BSC) to assess the impact of potential climate and landuse changes on the fresh water availability. The BSC model was built, calibrated, and validated against observed daily river discharge for the period of 1973–2006 using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) as the modeling tool. We employed the A2 and B2 scenarios of 2017–2050 generated by the Danish Regional Climate Model (HIRHAM), and four potential future landuse scenarios based on the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC)’s special report on emissions scenarios (SRES) storylines, to analyze the impact of climate change and landuse change on the water resources of the BSC. The detailed modeling and the ensemble of the scenarios showed that a substantial part of the catchment will likely experience a decrease in freshwater resources by 30 to 50%.

Highlights

Observational evidence from all continents and oceans shows that natural systems are affected by regional climate changes, by increases in temperature [1]
The focus of this study is on the Black Sea Catchment (BSC), which lies in a transition zone between the Mediterranean region in an arid climate of North Africa and the temperate and rainy climate of central Europe
Our analysis shows that the poor conditions in these regions in terms of fresh water availability will be further intensified under climate change (Figure 7c)

Summary

Introduction

Observational evidence from all continents and oceans shows that natural systems are affected by regional climate changes, by increases in temperature [1]. The focus of this study is on the Black Sea Catchment (BSC), which lies in a transition zone between the Mediterranean region in an arid climate of North Africa and the temperate and rainy climate of central Europe. It is affected by interactions between mid-latitude and tropical processes. Even relatively minor modifications of the general circulation can lead to substantial changes in the Mediterranean climate [4] This makes the BSC a potentially vulnerable region to climatic changes as induced, for example, by increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases [4].

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Conclusion