Abstract
The purpose of this study was the quantification of today’s surface water resources of the Republic of Belarus and the prognostic assessment of their transformation in the future by means of mathematical modeling. The assessment of surface water resources in Belarus for the period 1960–2009 was made. Redistribution of water resources in the basins of major rivers and administrative areas was registered. Comparative analysis of maps of annual runoff in Belarus showed that the Western Dvina river basin was characterized by insignificant increase of the values of runoff and the increase of the water content of the Pripyat Basin for different probabilities of exceedance of the level varied from 0.4 to 1.7 km3. For the Neman and Viliya, a decrease in runoff was revealed. For other watersheds, changes in runoff were not found. Obtained results are important for water resources management and forecasting of their changes both in Belarus and internationally. The studied model can be effectively used in flood management.
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