Abstract
Water resources carrying capacity (WRCC) analysis is critically important in providing guidance to the sustainable development strategies of the YarLung Tsangpo River Basin (YTRB) due to the conflicts among the ample water resources, low development level of society, and the fragile ecological environment. This study evaluated the scheduled developing mode of YTRB in the planning years from 2016 to 2030 with a WRCC system containing three components: a hydrological informatics modeling system (HIMS), water resources carrying capacity (WRCC) model, and an index evaluation system. The averaged WRCC index is 4.29, 1.19, and 0.06 for the planning years, and 2.61, 0.98, 0.05 for the baseline years for the three sub-basins. The water deficiency problem becomes more severe in the upper sub-basin and appears in the middle sub-basin with the WRCC index greater than 1, while the water resources are not fully utilized in the lower sub-basin in the planning years, with the WRCC index far less than 1. The GDP of the three sub-basins is greater in the planning years, with 2.25 × 108, 54.60 × 108, and 3.94 × 108 dollars year−1 than those in the baseline years with 1.97 × 108, 47.71 × 108, 3.43 × 108 dollars year−1. However, GDP per capita/cubic meter keeps decreasing due to the great population growth rate and non-enhanced water use efficiency. The sustainability index is 0.04, 0.23, and 0.47 in the planning years, which is lower than the 0.04, 0.31, and 0.50 in the baseline years. Therefore, the scheduled growth rates of the population, urbanization, and GDP are a developing mode with low sustainability and are not appropriate to be continued in the planning years. Further work is needed to identify a sustainable developing mode with a decreased population growth rate, enhanced water use efficiency in the economic system, and the optimized allocation of water resources distribution in the three sub-basins with hydraulic facilities.
Highlights
Water resources are the fundamental resource supporting regional economic development and maintaining the balance of the ecological system [1]
The streamflow was estimated as the total water resources of the water resource system and used to calculate the available water resources to support the economic system and maintain the ecological system
The streamflow of the four stations within the YarLung Tsangpo River Basin (YTRB) was well-simulated by the hydrological informatics modeling system (HIMS) model based on the statistical results in both the calibration and validation periods (Table 3)
Summary
Water resources are the fundamental resource supporting regional economic development and maintaining the balance of the ecological system [1]. Coordinating water resources allocation can help to solve the problem of water deficiency in arid areas and the problem of water quality degradation in humid areas, and maintain the development sustainability of the water resources system, ecological system, and economic system [2,3,4,5]. WRCC is an extension of carrying capacity in the natural resource field and has been given various definitions from different perspectives [3,8,9,10]. It is the capacity of water resources
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