Water resources allocation based on water resources supply-demand forecast and comprehensive values of water resources

Abstract

Study regionThe Yellow River Basin (YRB) in China. Study focusThe water resources supply-demand imbalance hinders sustainable socioeconomic development, which can be effectively addressed by the water resources allocation (WRA). In this study, a WRA model was established based on supply-demand forecast and comprehensive values of water resources (SDF-CVWR). First, the supply-demand situation was analyzed to determine whether an imbalance existed. Considering the coordinated development of all systems, a comprehensive index, CVWR, was proposed, and its values in the current and planning years were quantified by emergy analysis method. Finally, the model was solved by the genetic algorithm. New hydrological insights for the regionThere were supply-demand imbalances existing in the planning years (2025, 2030), and the water shortages were 0.89 × 1010 m3 and 1.04 × 1010 m3. The CVWR were 3.58 × 1012 yuan and 3.61 × 1012 yuan, showing an upward trend compared with the current year (2020). Compared with 2020, the water allocated decreased in middle and upper reaches of the YRB in 2025, while increased in the lower reaches; in 2030, except Shanxi, water allocated in other provinces (regions) was basically the same as that in 2025. These provide a scheme reference for WRA in the YRB. The model proposed in this study is verified to be applicable. In addition, the model can be flexibly used according to the actual parameters in different regions.