Abstract
This study develops the Multiobjective Grey Wolf Optimization (MOGWO) algorithm to obtain the optimum rules on the operation of the Golestan Dam in Golestan Province, Iran, under the climate change conditions. The tow objective functions defined in the optimization process include minimizing the vulnerability and maximizing the reliability indices of the model under baseline and climate change conditions periods. Results showed that the river flow would decline by 0.17 percent of the baseline period under climate change conditions in addition to increasing the temperature by 20%, as well as decreasing the rainfall by 21.1%. Moreover, the extent of vulnerability index variations in baseline and climate change conditions was 16–45% and 10–43%, respectively. The range of reliability index variations in baseline and climate change conditions was 47–90% and 27–93%. On the other hand, the vulnerability index has also been measured at 29% and 27% for baseline and climate change conditions, respectively, with 75 percent of reliability. Comparison of the reservoir release rate and water demands for all of the Pareto points indicates a rise in release rates for climate change conditions relative to the baseline one; as the result, the higher adjustment in the reservoir release rates to its demand volumes will be highlighted as the higher dam efficiency in climate change conditions.
Highlights
Water resources systems are very complex, and in terms of water resources management and use, the advantages of water supplies can be maximized. erefore, in order to promote sustainable growth and optimize profits, it is important to participate in management activities to satisfy customer needs, in areas where the mismatch problem is severe [1, 2].e operation of dam reservoirs is of great significance because of the inadequate water supplies, owing to the economic value of the reservoirs resulting from the optimum management of water resources, growing water demands, and the scarcity of usable water supply
None of the Pareto points has taken precedence over others; based on catchment conditions and policies, they can differ. e phase was to determine the optimum level of rules on water demand in the sense of baseline and climate change conditions. erefore, the optimum rules were compared to the optimum rules arising from climate change conditions
In the light of climate change, it is important to include a range of decisionmaking alternatives (Pareto curve) in such a manner that executive managers and operators can assess the relative value of the objectives in this respect. erefore, it is unavoidable to derive multiobjective operating rules from reservoirs, as each of the curve points in the Pareto curve means a reservoir operation rule that can be modified under the conditions and policies regulating the catchment
Summary
Water resources systems are very complex, and in terms of water resources management and use, the advantages of water supplies can be maximized. erefore, in order to promote sustainable growth and optimize profits, it is important to participate in management activities to satisfy customer needs, in areas where the mismatch problem is severe [1, 2]. Sun et al [5] proposed a model of multiobjective optimization for reservoir operation (MORO) with the objectives of maximizing water diversion and power generation. Eir results showed that (1) the proposed model was effective and reasonable in theory; (2) the optimization results obtained by MOEA/D-AWA demonstrated this algorithm could be applied to the MORO problem, providing a set of evenly distributed nondominated solutions; and (3) water diversion and power generation were contradictory objectives. The optimal operation rules of the Golestan Dam reservoir (in Golestan Province, Iran) in baseline conditions (from April 2006 to October 2018) and climate change conditions (April 2021 to October 2033) using MOGWO algorithm, with two objectives of minimizing vulnerability and maximizing reliability index in demandsupply, were determined and compared in the mentioned periods as a necessity for the future water recourses planning management. The procedures for this investigation were to compare optimum allocation policies in baseline and climate change conditions with the performance measures and efficiency indices of the reservoir
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