Abstract

ABSTRACT When rainfall does not meet crop water requirements, supplemental irrigation is needed to maintain productivity. On-farm ponds can prevent excessive groundwater exploitation – to the benefit of the whole community – but they reduce the cultivated area and require investments by each farmer. Thus, choosing the source of water for irrigation (groundwater vs on-farm pond) is a problem of collective action. An agent-based model is developed to simulate a smallholder farming system; the farmers’ long-/short-view orientation determines the choice of the water source. We identify the most beneficial water source for economic gain and its stability, and how it can change across communities and under future climate scenarios. By using on-farm ponds, long-view-oriented farmers provide collective advantages but have individual advantages only under extreme climates; a tragedy of the commons is always possible. Changes in farmers’ attitudes (and hence sources of water) based on previous experiences can worsen the economic outcome.

Highlights

  • In many regions, rainfall does not reliably meet crop water requirements – a condition that could be exacerbated by cli­ mate change (IPCC 2014)

  • A well for groundwater extraction is generally cheaper than the construction of an on-farm pond, but groundwater recharge can be extremely slow, so that the water table can deepen over time, to the point that the existing well is no longer be able to reach the water table

  • We show (a) a comparison of yields and net economic gains between short vs long-view-oriented farmers belonging to the same community, under different climate scenarios; (b) a comparison of the average net economic gain among communities characterized by different propor­ tions of short-view to long-view-oriented farmers

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Summary

Introduction

Rainfall does not reliably meet crop water requirements – a condition that could be exacerbated by cli­ mate change (IPCC 2014). What appears the most appropriate solution is not applied due to other factors (e.g. Bussmann et al 2016), calling for the implementation of specific policies and incentives. This situa­ tion can trigger a vicious circle of ecological fragility-economic poverty (Cheng et al 2019). Towards a more sustainable and climate-resilient agriculture, we need to explore the impli­ cations of different management choices for crop production, resource use, and economic viability, explicitly including the human dimension of decision-making under uncertainty

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