WATER LEVELS AFFECT NEST SUCCESS OF THE SNAIL KITE IN FLORIDA: AIC AND THE OMISSION OF RELEVANT CANDIDATE MODELS

Abstract

Abstract Dreitz et al. (2001) analyzed the factors affecting nest success of the Snail Kite (Rostrhamus sociabilis) in Florida. They concluded that success was unrelated to water levels because Akaike's Information Criterion rated models with water-level terms as poor compared to other models. Their suite of candidate models, however, did not include models with area-specific differences in the way that water levels affect nest success. We believe that such differences should have been included among the a priori models examined, and that their best model is neither ecologically informative nor useful for management. Using the same statistical methods, we reanalyze Dreitz et al.'s data on nesting success from the five areas with sufficient years and nests for analysis (comprising 89% of their 1542 nests) and show that, when spatial effects of water levels are included, water levels have an important influence on nest success over the entire range of water levels, not just during low water conditions. Furt...