Water-level fluctuation (WLF) of Panchet dam in India and assessment of its human risk using AHP method

Abstract

This paper is an endeavor to probe into the temporal and seasonal water-level fluctuation (WLF) of Panchet dam in India since 2005–2016 and analysis of its risk to the dam-surrounding people, using analytical hierarchy process (AHP). The present study specifies that 30% storage capacity of the reservoir has been reduced within 60 years because of rapid sedimentation, while the trend analysis indicates that 50% and 100% storage capacity will be blocked within 130 years and 250 years respectively, if the present state continues. Thus it reveals a 250 years’ active life span of the dam. Average temporal WLF of the dam is 12 mts and significant at the 5% level of significance (p < 0.05) whereas, seasonal WLF is 8 mts and also significant at the 1% level of significance (p < 0.01). This temporal and seasonal WLF leads to significant rise and fall of water level that poses threat to the people of 92 villages situated within 1 km buffer area of the dam. Nine human risk alternatives (A1–A9) resulted from the WLF of the dam are identified using Delphi Questionnaire then rated and prioritized them using AHP method. Risk prioritization result varies from 9.90 to 10.29 calculated on the basis of consistency measure (CM) value. It indicates that ‘Population displacement’ (A3) and ‘Inundation of settlement’ (A2) are the highest (CM 10.29) and lowest (CM 9.90) vulnerable among the risk alternatives obtaining maximum and minimum CM values respectively.