Water–land Scarcity Risk Nexus in the National Trade System Based on Multiregional Input–output and Ecological Network Analyses

Abstract

Massive amounts of water and land are exploited for rapid economic development. The increasing demand on water and land has aggravated water and land scarcity, which are posing a great risk to national economy. In this study, we proposed a network-based scarcity risk assessment framework for water-land nexus in national trade system to investigate the vulnerability of the national economy to water and land scarcity. Based on the hydrological availability of water resource and water consumption, the water stress index was first built to assess water scarcity in each region. Similarly, based on regional land use and land resource, regional land stress index was built. Taking the stress index as initial risk, combing with the economic multiregional input-output analysis, and the information network model in ecological network analysis (ENA), the water-land scarcity risk network was established. Finally, a case study was conducted in China to quantify the water-land scarcity risk propagation among different regions and sectors, concerning both direct risk and integral risk, in the national trade system. The results showed that disparities of regional water and land use are obvious due to the different natural endowment of water and land resources. Most studied provinces had at least slight land stress. There are significant differences between initial risk and integral risk due to network amplification effect and nexus impact. The proposed network-based scarcity risk framework for water-land nexus can identify vulnerable provinces and sectors in the national trade network to strengthen the resilience of the national economy.