Abstract
Abstract. Meeting the growing water and food demands in a densely populated country like India is a major challenge. It requires an extensive investigation into the changing patterns of the checks and balances behind the maintenance of food security at the expense of depleting groundwater, along with high energy consumption. Here we present a comprehensive set of analyses which assess the present status of the water–food–energy nexus in India, along with its changing pattern, in the last few decades. We find that with the growth of population and consequent increase in the food demands, the food production has also increased, and this has been made possible with the intensification of irrigation. However, during the recent decade (after 1996), the increase in food production has not been sufficient to meet its growing demands, precipitating a decline in the per-capita food availability. We also find a statistically significant declining trend of groundwater storage in India during the last decade, as derived from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite datasets. Regional studies reveal contrasting trends between northern and western–central India. North-western India and the middle Ganga basin show a decrease in the groundwater storage as opposed to an increasing storage over western–central India. Comparison with well data reveals that the highest consistency of GRACE-derived storage data with available well measurements is in the middle Ganga basin. After analysing the data for the last 2 decades, we further showcase that, after a drought, the groundwater storage drops but is unable to recover to its original condition even after good monsoon years. The groundwater storage reveals a very strong negative correlation with the electricity consumption for agricultural usage, which may also be considered as a proxy for groundwater pumped for irrigation in a region. The electricity usage for agricultural purposes has an increasing trend and, interestingly, it does not have any correlation with the monsoon rainfall as computed with the original or de-trended variables. This reveals an important finding that the irrigation has been intensified irrespective of rainfall. This also resulted in a decreasing correlation between the food production and monsoon rainfall, revealing the increasing dependency of agricultural activities on irrigation. We conclude that irrigation has now become essential for agriculture to meet the food demand; however, it should be judiciously regulated and controlled, based on the water availability from monsoon rainfall, specifically after the drought years, as it is essential to recover from the deficits suffered previously.
Highlights
The global population continues to rise steeply, bringing forth an accordant increase of significant proportions in the demand for water–food–energy (Leck et al, 2015; Rasul and Sharma, 2015)
The United Nations has defined food security and water security as follows: “food security is the condition in which all people, at all times, have physical, social and economic access to sufficient safe and nutritious food that meets their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life” and “water security is defined as the capacity of a population to safeguard sustainable access to adequate quantities of acceptable quality water for sustaining livelihoods, human well-being, and socio-economic development, for ensuring protection against water-borne pollution and water-related disasters, and for preserving ecosystems in a climate of peace and political stability” respectively
The initial analysis of the various datasets that are available on official government websites reveals that the food production has increased considerably but not to an extent to support the ever-increasing population
Summary
The global population continues to rise steeply, bringing forth an accordant increase of significant proportions in the demand for water–food–energy (Leck et al, 2015; Rasul and Sharma, 2015). Various other studies using the GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) satellite datasets have shown a decline in the snowfall in the Himalayan region, with decreasing snowmelt from the resident glaciers During summer, these snowpacks contribute as the freshwater sources for the major rivers, but presently this proportion has declined, leading to a negative storage trend of the Total Water Storage (TWS) (Moiwo et al, 2011; Wu et al, 2015). The outcome of all these studies, and their amalgamation, shows a decline in the groundwater storage levels, especially till the year 2009, and thereafter, an improvement or stability in the storage (Dasgupta et al, 2014; Prakash et al, 2014; Khandu et al, 2016; Yi et al, 2016) Such revelations are shocking because no longer can a drought be attributed to meteorological failure, but such creeping hazards are dependent on how the water is used, especially when it comes to the usage of groundwater. These subregional studies provide an incentive for developing better water management and usage practices, which has become the need of the hour for sustainable development
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