Abstract
Climate change has repercussions on the management of water resources. Particularly, changes in precipitation and temperature impact hydropower generation and revenue by affecting seasonal electricity prices and streamflow. This issue exemplifies the impact of climate change on the water-energy-nexus, which has raised serious concern. This paper investigates the impact of climate change on hydropower with a multidisciplinary approach. A holistic perspective should be favored as the issue is complex, consequently, we chose to investigate a specific case study in Italy. It allows grasping the details, which matters in mountainous area. We integrated a hydrological model, hydropower management model, nine climate scenarios, and five electricity scenarios for a specific storage hydropower plant. Independently from the scenarios, the results show a glacier volume shrinkage upward of 40% by 2031 and minimum of 50% by 2046. The reservoir mitigates losses of revenue that reach 8% in the worst case, however, are lower compared with run-of-the-river configuration. Changes in price seasonality amplitude also determine modifications in revenues, while temporal shifts appear to be ineffective. For run-of-the-river, any variation in hydrological cycle immediately translates into revenue. Comparing the results of all future scenarios with the base scenario, it can be concluded that an increase in temperature will slightly improve the performances of hydropower.
Highlights
Hydropower has a great importance in global electricity generation, representing the 15% of the worldwide amount [1], and accounting for the 85% of the total production [2] in the world’s renewable energy framework
We present the models and dataset utilized to build the analysis on a case study, along section presents the The models and dataset utilized to buildmanagement the analysis on a caseare study, along withThis the workflow adopted
This fast decrease is due to the melting of low altitude glaciers, which are more vulnerable to temperature increases [18]
Summary
Hydropower has a great importance in global electricity generation, representing the 15% of the worldwide amount [1], and accounting for the 85% of the total production [2] in the world’s renewable energy framework. This technology has the great advantage of ensuring operational flexibility and enhancing the possibility of storing energy and managing the production. It increases the reliability of the electric system, acting as an ancillary service. As the production of this power source relies on inflows and on electricity prices [11], it becomes important to understand how climate changes will affect these two drivers
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