Abstract
Probabilistic reliability measures for the performance of water distribution networks are developed and analytical methods for their computation explained. The paper begins with a review of reliability considerations and measures for water supply systems, making use of similar notions in other fields. It classifies reliability analyses according to the level of detail with which the water system is modeled, and then concentrates on methods relevant to networks. Two probabilistic measures, reachability and connectivity, are explored for use in water distribution systems. Two algorithms for their computation are presented, one for series-parallel networks and one for general networks. These measures are computed for two systems, each with ten nodes. Additionally, the probability that a given point receives sufficient supply is proposed for use as a reliability measure. An algorithm is presented for the calculation of this measure, which combines a capacitated network algorithm with a method to efficiently search through network configurations involving multiple link failures. This measure is calculated for the two sample systems.
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