Water demand prospects for irrigation in the São Francisco River: Brazilian public policy

Abstract

Abstract This study analyzed how irrigation expansion in the São Francisco Hydrographic Region (SFRH) could affect water availability in four physiographic regions: Upper, Middle, sub-Middle, and Lower SFRH. The Brazilian National Water Resources Plan (PNRH) is the main policy for water resources in Brazil. The PNRH, however, did not evaluate how the expansion of the irrigated area could affect water demand. We use a detailed computable general equilibrium model (CGE), applicable to Brazil, to simulate expansion scenarios in irrigated areas for 2025 and 2035, according to the Water Resources Plan for the São Francisco River (SFP). Simulations were carried out for areas deemed potentially suitable for irrigation. The Climatic Water Balance (CWB) was estimated for the SFRH to compare water supply and water demand. Results suggest that cities located in the Upper and Middle São Francisco Regions would present greater irrigation potential due to water availability and proximity to large irrigated areas. The comparative result of the CWB and the CGE model shows water availability problems in the states of Alagoas and Pernambuco, in particular, cities located in the São Francisco Lower Region.