Water cut forecast after downhole pumping equipment optimization based on displacement characteristics

Abstract

The article deals with the issue of water cut predicting when downhole pumping equipment optimizing. In practice, an expert assessment of this parameter is used as a rule, which does not take into account the degree of planned optimization relative to the current mode. The paper proposes a methodology allowing taking into account the dynamics of planned fluid withdrawals in predicting water cut based on displacement characteristics. To solve the described problem, four characteristics were selected with a certain type of statistical dependence, where, in one part of the equation, fluid withdrawals do not depend on oil withdrawals. This allows, by setting different values of fluid production, to predict oil production and water cut at any time period. On the example of deposits of one of the regions of the Ural-Volga region, the most suitable for certain geological conditions displacement characteristics were determined. Look back analysis shows a high degree of convergence between the calculated and actual water cut indicators – the average absolute deviation is 1.9%, which allows forecasting with sufficient accuracy. Keywords: oil fields development; production stimulation; displacement characteristics; water cut.