Water Availability Forecasting Using Univariate and Multivariate Prophet Time Series Model for ACEA (European Automobile Manufacturers Association)

Abstract

Time series is one of method to forecasting the data. The ACEA company has competition with opened the data in the Water Availability and uses the data to forecast. The dataset namely, Aquifers-Petrignano in Italy in water resources field has five parameters e.g. rainfall, temperature, depth to groundwater, drainage volume, and river hydrometry. In our research will be forecast the depth to groundwater data using univariate and multivariate approach of time series using Prophet Method. Prophet method is one of library which develop by Facebook team. We also use the other approach to making the data clean, or the data ready to forecast. We use handle missing data, transforming, differencing, decomposition time series, determine lag, stationary approach, and Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF). The all approach will be uses to make sure that the data not appearing the problem while we tried to forecast. In the other describe, we already get the results using univariate and multivariate Prophet method. The multivariate approach has presented the value of MAE 0.82 and RMSE 0.99, it’s better than while we forecast using univariate Prophet.