Water Availability-Demand Balance under Climate Change Scenarios in an Overpopulated Region of Mexico.

Jessica Bravo-Cadena,Patricia Balvanera,Numa P Pavón,Ramón Razo-Zarate,Gerardo Sánchez-Rojas

doi:10.3390/ijerph18041846

Abstract

Climate change scenarios show that water availability could be decreasing in the near future, adding to the increasing problem of the growing water demands in socioeconomic sectors. The aim of this work was to generate a geographically explicit water balance concerning availability vs. demand in an overpopulated region of Mexico. Water balance and water deficit models were made for three periods of time: 1970–2000, and two future periods of time (2041–2060 and 2061–2080). Three global climate models were used in addition to two different climate scenarios from each (Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) RCP 4.6 and RCP 8.5). Water demand for socioeconomic sectors was calculated through the water footprint. Water availability was 197,644.58 hm3/year, while that the water demand was 59,187 hm3/year. The socioeconomic sectors with the highest demand were domestic services (48%), agriculture (27%), livestock agriculture (20%), and timber production (5%). The highest water availability areas were not the same as those with the highest demand and vice versa. However, 39% of municipalities had a higher water demand than its availability. A significant reduction in water availability was identified, considering an interval of −15% to 40%. This variation depends on climate models, scenarios, and period of time. Areas with overpopulated cities in the region would have higher pressure on water availability. These results could be used in the implementation of public policies by focusing on adaptation strategies to reduce water deficit in the immediate future.

Highlights

Introduction published maps and institutional affilWater supply is a fundamental element of the socio-environmental system (SES)
Water availability was the highest value in the mountainous regions of the Sierra Madre Oriental (Figure 2) from the Papaloapan, Moctezuma, and Tamuin rivers watersheds
The spatial distribution of hydrological services is an important element of watershed management, including public policies that focused on establishing mitigation and adaptation to climate change in the near future [49,50]

Summary

Introduction

Introduction published maps and institutional affilWater supply is a fundamental element of the socio-environmental system (SES). Due to climate change, SES has been heavily impacted because rainfall is changing in distribution, magnitude, and frequency, both globally and regionally [1,2]. Water demand is increasing as a consequence of overpopulation and agricultural irrigation demand, as well as demand from other economic sectors. Water demands in the agricultural sector, as part of the water–food nexus, will worsen problems caused by climate change. Agriculture has a huge global imprint through irrigation, and it could become the sector with the highest water demand, putting strong pressure on water resources worldwide [3]. It is estimated that there will be a 10–20% growth in the number of people at risk of hunger by 2050 [4] Given this context, it is very important to iations

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Conclusion