Abstract
Village Tank Cascade Systems (VTCSs) were built in ancient Sri Lanka as self-reliant and climate-resilient agro-ecological systems. This study examined crop choices and profitability of farming under alternative rainfall regimes in a well-functioning tank village system in Mahakanumulla VTCS in Anuradhapura district. A Linear Programming (LP) model was developed to represent farming activities in the tank village for the 2018-19 Maha and 2019 Yala seasons using data gathered from secondary sources and a key informant survey. The baseline equilibrium was calibrated treating farmers as profit maximisers cultivating four types of land (uplands and lowlands in Maha and Yala seasons), two types of labour (hired and family), and twelve-monthly water constraints. The model was simulated under alternative rainfall regimes and technological interventions. The optimal crop mixes, farm profits, and shadow prices of resources associated with the baseline scenarios were compared with those of counterfactual scenarios. The results of the analysis indicated that the success of an intervention is determined by the rainfall regime. The analysis further showed that the introduction of a short-aged rice variety helps more in mitigating drought in a Maha season and the introduction of a traditional rice variety helps more in drought during Yala season. The positive effects of desiltation is quite large when a traditional rice variety is introduced in a Maha drought. Provision of seasonal weather forecasts, which will enable farmers to choose appropriate technological interventions, is recommended.
Highlights
Village Tank Cascade Systems (VTCSs) were built in ancient Sri Lanka as highly efficient systems for storing, conveying, and utilising rainwater (Bandara, 1985)
Mahakanumulla tank village in the Anuradhapura district was selected as the study area. It is a part of Mahakanumulla VTCS, which consists of 27 village tanks distributed among nine Grama Niladhari Divisions covering 1,085 ha of land
The results clearly indicated that the availability of water drives the choice of crop plans and the profitability of farming
Summary
Village Tank Cascade Systems (VTCSs) were built in ancient Sri Lanka as highly efficient systems for storing, conveying, and utilising rainwater (Bandara, 1985). Several studies have highlighted the degradation of VTCSs suggesting different restoration efforts (Bandara et al, 2010; IUCN, 2015; IUCN, 2016). Since limited resources are available for investment, it is important to ascertain potential benefits from such restoration strategies before they are implemented. Optimisation models are widely used by agricultural economists for quantifying benefits under alternative scenarios. Several studies have been conducted in a Sri Lankan context to quantify the benefits of optimal land-use plans. Bogahawatte (1984) formulated a Linear Programming (LP) model to ascertain the croplivestock integrated farming systems that provide maximum profits to farm operators in three rainfed villages in the Moneragala district. Gamage (2017) used a goal programming model to find an optimal land use allocation for five other field crops in the Anuradhapura district Considering that farm producers possess multiple objectives, Weerahewa and Zuhair (1990) adopted a goal programming model (an extension to a LP model) to assess farmers’ behaviour. Fernando et al (2003) developed a multi-period LP to analyse the effects of farm-level resource constraints and government policies in coconut-based intercropping systems. Gamage (2017) used a goal programming model to find an optimal land use allocation for five other field crops in the Anuradhapura district
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