Water and Energy Nexus in Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Countries

Abstract

Water demand in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries is increasing rapidly due to high population growth and rapid increase in the various development sectors including agriculture, family and industry. The water supply is mainly served by over pumping of fossil groundwater resources and increasing the desalination capacity. Satisfying this water demand requires an intensive use of energy for treatment, desalination and water transfer along the supply chain from sources ultimately to the consumer. Hence, there is an inherent connection between water and energy and with climate change. These links between water and energy are expected to become even stronger. In this study, we assessed the climate change impacts on the water and energy nexus in GCC countries. The WEAP (Water Evaluation And Planning) model was used for water demand—and its main drivers—and water supply, simulating policies, priorities and preferences. For energy, LEAP (Long-Range Energy Alternatives Planning) model was used for energy supply and demand, and is able to capture the impacts of low carbon development strategies. A coupled WEAP-LEAP model was then used to evaluate the future performance of the energy-water system under climate change and policy scenarios. The coupled models required detailed data, which were obtained through literature reviews and consultations with key stakeholders in the region. As part of this process, the outputs of both models were validated for historical periods using existing data. The models examined 5 policy scenarios of different futures of resource management to the year 2060. A future under current management practices with current climate and a climate projection based on the RCP8.5; a High Efficiency scenario where each country gradually implements policies to reduce the consumption of water and electricity; a Natural Resource Protection scenario with resource efficiency and phasing out of groundwater extraction and drastic reduction of fossil fuel usage in favor of solar; and an Integrated Policy scenario that integrates the prior two policy scenarios