Water and Armed Conflict in the Middle East — Fantasy or Reality?

Abstract

In recent years many people have claimed that, as a result of increasing water scarcity, water wars are likely to occur in the future. This chapter argues that such a view is too simplistic. Although greater pressures on available water resources will occur, it is essential to examine the actual uses to which any water is put. In most dryland countries, over 75% of all water usage is for irrigation purposes. In the Middle East, irrigation application rates are high with the result that in extreme cases 3,000 m3 of water can be utilized to produce one tonne of wheat. If water is transferred from these low value agricultural uses to more valuable urban/industrial usage, ample water is available to supply the needs of most dryland nations well into the third decade of the 21st century. Expected urban/industrial needs for all the countries of the Middle East are calculated using ‘minimum’ and ‘maximum’ water demand concepts. Therefore, water wars are unlikely as they would be fought over low value irrigation water. In effect, this means water used to irrigate food or fibre drops. All of these commodities are available on the world market, which means that money can easily be a substitute for water. Water conflicts short of war can still arise, with ‘water piracy’ being an interesting case. Israel provides good examples of this type of water poaching, both along the Yarmouk River and on the Palestinian West Bank. Here, with the presence and threat of superior military power, Israel has been able to stop societies with weaker military powers from using their own water resources. Gravity ensures that the water will flow down to Israeli-controlled land where the water can be utilized.