Water abstraction management under climate change: Jadro spring Croatia

Abstract

This study aims to assess the vulnerability of drinking water abstraction in a karst spring in an uncertain future. Karst spring water is an important source of drinking water for the Croatian coastal area and is characterised by a high fluctuation of discharge and turbidity. Various climate models have predicted drier summers, wet winters, and a significant increase in the frequency of extreme events in the future. Therefore, it is necessary to determine the possible consequences on the water-supply system and increase its reliability and resilience. In this study, this assessment was conducted using a bottom-up approach that threatens vulnerability as an internal property of the system. To reduce the uncertainty in drawing conclusions, hazard-relevant indicators and tools based on the physical reality of the hydrological system and stochastic characteristics of the discharge time series were introduced. The study results indicate that, for meeting the drinking water standard, turbidity will be larger and more frequent, and thus, will be a growing problem, while discharge will not significantly reduce the water-supply capacity in the near future. Although a karst aquifer is sensitive to climate change, it will continue to be a reliable resource for drinking water supply. The applied assessment approach and tools prove to be pragmatic and effective for assessing the vulnerability of water abstraction.