Water 2050: Social and Demographic Issues

Abstract

I find that when people talk about water, they talk about how they feel when they are around it—the tranquil sense they achieve as they look at the ripples on a lake, the crashing waves at a beach, or the meandering bends in a river. They share their joy of swimming in water, fishing in it, or boating on it. Rarely, however, do they talk about the engineering marvel of delivering water to their home or place of business. What does that tell us? AWWA's Water 2050 program is charting the future of water to the year 2050. It is assessing five key drivers that will determine this future: sustainability, technology, economics, governance, and social and demographic issues. By focusing on these drivers, we can develop strategies to create a better future rather than waiting for the future to come to us. Together these five drivers combine to address the processes and needs for providing water service. Yet the fifth driver—social and demographic issues—is distinct from the others. The first four drivers focus on how water systems deliver water, while the fifth is about those who drink and use the water—in simple terms, how water is supplied and who benefits. So, what might be the social and demographic change in water use by those who benefit in 2050? In November 2022, the world population reached a record eight billion; by 2050 the population could be between nine billion and 10 billion. Given this rate of growth, it is clear that by 2050 water use norms will change in order to stretch the fixed amount of water over more and more people. The top two changes that will ensure enough water in 2050, according to AWWA members, are increased use of water recycling and additional water conservation. Also, let's think about the shift in where water will be used by 2050. What if the megatrend of urbanization reverses itself? For instance, with today's ability to work from anywhere, will people continue to flock to the big cities, or will they reverse this trend and seek less crowded places to live and work—as long as, of course, there is good internet. If the demographic trends are the latter, current urban centers could easily find themselves with excess capacity in their water systems, and the more remote communities may need to quickly add capacity. In both cases, water delivery and use will change. Another social issue is the affordability of water, and sadly, only 3% of AWWA members think it will be solved by 2050. Within the framework of Water 2050, affordability has (at least) two sides to it. On one hand, as discussed in the Water 2050 Sustainability Think Tank report (available at www.awwa.org/Water-2050-Reports), affordability has great influence on the sustainability of a utility, its infrastructure investments, and cost-of-service rates. On the other hand, it is a social and societal issue for those who drink and use the water but also struggle to pay for it. The full solution, hopefully reached before 2050 and pointed out in the Sustainability Think Tank report, will “not comprise the cost-based rate-making methodology” and will provide funding for those who cannot afford their water service. As I think about it, social and demographic issues may be the most significant of the five drivers because this driver is focused on the people who drink and use water every day. Even if in 2050 these people still do not talk about the engineering marvel of delivering water to their homes, they do tell us about how water makes them feel and the joy it brings to them. That seems like a strong motivation to be prepared for the realities of a 2050 future.